Worst air pollution Melbourne, today and tomorrow

On 17 September 2026, overall air quality in Melbourne is moderate. AQI is the main air quality indicator at 40.9/100. Pollution peaks around 11:00 PM (PM2.5: 40.9/100).

On 18 September 2026, air quality conditions in Melbourne will be similar to today, with AQI forecast at moderate at 41.0/100. Pollution peaks around 12:00 AM (PM2.5: 41.0/100).

Melbourne's air quality is at its most challenging during major bushfire smoke events, as seen dramatically during the 2019-20 Black Summer, and during spring thunderstorm-asthma episodes when grass pollen ruptures under storm conditions, most infamously in November 2016. Winter wood-smoke and occasional summer ozone add smaller, more routine dips. Bay breezes generally keep day-to-day air quality good outside these notable events.

It is forecasts derived by downscaling forecasts provided by EU’s Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) by taking into account local conditions such as traffic patterns. CAMS bases its forecast on satellite measurements of particles and chemical compounds in the atmosphere. Airmine’s services were developed with support from the European Space Agency (ESA)’s Business Applications and Space Solutions (BASS) team.

Airmine’s forecast uses CAMS (Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service) as its background atmospheric model. While CAMS includes wildfire emissions, these are derived from satellite observations and are not available in real time. During rapidly evolving wildfire events, there may therefore be a delay before increased emissions are incorporated into the model. As a result, the forecast may temporarily underestimate PM₂.₅ and other pollutants associated with wildfire smoke.

During rapidly evolving wildfire events, CAMS may lag by approximately 1–2 days before increased wildfire emissions are fully represented, which can lead to temporary underestimation of PM₂.₅ concentrations in Airmine’s forecast.